Peramalan Penjualan Keramik Menggunakan Metode Moving Average Dan Exponential Smoothing Pada Usaha Agus Keramik

Kusyanto Kusyanto, Dadang Suhardi, Robi Awaludin

Abstract


ABSTRACT

Forecasting is a very important factor in the companies, since the application of forecasting can help companies in manging their product sales strategy for the future. By knowing the sales forecasting, the companies can provide raw materials as needed. The method of this research was descriptive time series. The research methods in this research were Moving Average method and Exponential Smoothing method. The experiments on these two methods aim to find the smallest average error value. Based on the result of this research in Agus Ceramics Business which used Moving Average method and Exponential Smoothing method, the result showed that the best method was five monthly Moving Average method. This method had the smallest average of MAD, MSE, and MAPE compared to other methods and it had forecasting accuracy level which is close to the actual value.

Keywords : Sale Forecasting, Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing


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