Nadya Nurmadhani, Faisol Faisol


Population projection is not a population forecast but a scientific calculation based on assumptions of the components of the population growth rate, namely births, deaths and migration. These three components determine the size of the population and the age structure of the population in the future. In order to determine the assumptions of future developmental levels of births, deaths and displacement, data are needed that describe trends from the past to the present. Here the author will determine the projected population growth in Sumenep Regency on Madura Island using a logistic growth model. The population census of Sumenep Regency was obtained from the BPS (Central Statistics Agency) of Sumenep Regency from 2010 to 2020. Based on the results of the study, it was obtained that the Craying capacity was 1,141,132.5. The author can conclude that the model that is closest to the actual census value is called the best model by looking for the MAPE value of each model to find out the census value that is closest to the true value and here the logistical model 9 is the most accurate compared to other models, with a value of  and produces the equation  and based on model 9, the writer looks for the population census in 2040 with the value of  resulted in 1,127,590.627 people.


Logistics Growth Model; Growth Rate; Capacity

Full Text:



Anggreini, D. (2018). Penerapan Persamaan Diferensial Verhulst dalam Menentukan Proyeksi Penduduk di kabupaten Tulungagung. Jurnal Fourier, 7(2), 87-102.

Anggreini, D. (2020). Penerapan Model Populasi Kontinu pada Perhitungan Proyeksi Penduduk di Indonesia (Studi kasus: Provinsi Jawa Timur). E-Jurnal Matematika, 9(4), 229-239.

Pandu, Y., K. (2020). Prediksi Penduduk Kabupaten Alor dengan Menggunakan Model Pertumbuhan Logistik pada Beberapa Tahun Mendatang. Asimtot: Jurnal Kependidikan Matematika, 2(1), 71-81.

Pratiwi, C. D. (2020). Aplikasi Persamaan Diferensial Model Populasi Logistik untuk Mengestimasi Penduduk di Kota Balikpapan. AdMathEdu, 10(1), 63-76.

Putri, S. R., Noviani, E & Yudhi. (2022). Prediksi Jumlah Penduduk dengan Persamaan Logistik Menggunakan Metode ADAMS-BASHFORT-MOULTON. Buletin Ilmiah Mat. Stat dan Terapannya (Bimaster), 11(1), 159-166.

Rosiyanti, Sugandha, A., Suwali. (2022). Aplikasi Model Pertumbuhan Logistik Dalam Menentukan Proyeksi Penduduk Di Kabupaten Banyumas. Perwira Journal of Science & Engineering, 2(2), 28-36.

Tang, P. & Tay, E. (2021). Penerapan Model Eksponensial dan Model Logistik untuk Proyeksi Penduduk Tahun 2024 di Kabupaten Alor. SAINSTEK, 5(1), 316-326

Uce, Silvi, P., Suhaemi, R., & Kartika, H. (2017). Aplikasi Metode Eksponensial dan Logistik dalam Meramalkan Jumlah Penduduk Kabupaten Karawang pada Tahun 2020. Prosiding Seminar Nasional Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika (SESIOMADIKA) 2017, 6-13



  • There are currently no refbacks.

Copyright (c) 2022 Nadya Nurmadhani

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Lihat Statistik Jurnal View MyStat




Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.