PREDIKTOR KINERJA IHSG DENGAN PENDEKATAN ERROR CORRECTION MODEL
Abstract
Abstrak
Pasar modal merupakan salah satu sarana investasi yang dapat memberikan keuntungan dengan risiko tertentu. Untuk memperoleh keuntungan yang optimal, diperlukan informasi mengenai faktor-faktor yang dapat mempengaruhi kinerja pasar modal. Objek dalam penelitian ini adalah Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG). Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk menguji secara empiris pengaruh inflasi, tingkat suku bunga, nilai tukar, jumlah uang beredar, harga minyak dunia, dan Indeks Dow Jones terhadap kinerja IHSG dalam jangka panjang dan jangka pendek. Penelitian ini menggunakan teknik Error Correction Model (ECM) untuk menganalisis data pada periode Januari 2017 sampai Desember 2021. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka panjang kinerja Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) dipengaruhi secara signifikan oleh inflasi, tingkat suku bunga, nilai tukar USD/IDR, harga minyak dunia, dan Indeks Dow Jones. Sedangkan dalam jangka pendek kinerja IHSG hanya dipengaruhi secara signifikan oleh nilai tukar USD/IDR, harga minyak dunia, dan Indeks Dow Jones. Berdasarkan temuan dalam penelitian ini, penting bagi pemerintah untuk focus dalam menjaga stabilitas perekonomian nasional dan sigap dalam mengantisipasi pengaruh factor eksternal agar kinjera HISG tetap terjaga.
Kata Kunci: IHSG; Makroekonomi; ECM
Abstract
A capital market is an investment place that can provide returns with certain risks. In order to obtain optimal returns, information on the factors that can affect the performance of the capital market is needed. The object of this research is Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) This study empirically examined the effect of inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, money supply, world oil prices, and the Dow Jones Index on JCI performance in the long and short term. This study uses the Error Correction Model (ECM) technique to analyze data for the period from January 2017 to December 2021. The results of the analysis show that in the long term, the JCI performance is significantly affected by inflation, interest rates, USD/IDR exchange rates, world oil prices, and the Dow Jones Index. Meanwhile, in the short term, the JCI’s performance was only significantly affected by the USD/IDR exchange rates, world oil prices, and the Dow Jones Index. Based on the findings in this study, it is important for the government to focus on maintaining the stability of the national economy and be alert in anticipating the influence of external factors so that the HISG is maintained.
Keywords: IHSG; Macroeconomics; ECM
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